1st Theme for discussion: Migration and the current financial crisis
The current economic and financial crisis is probably yet to reach its highest peak, however a stagnation of economic activity and rising unemployment have been felt by several countries in EUrope and North America. The overall negative climate clearly affects both migrants and natives. The media have been reporting dire competition for jobs between native and migrant workers (the title of a news story in the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera published in the Sunday, 22nd March edition was eloquent: Italian want the migrants' jobs back) as well as between legal and irregular workers especially in sectors like construction, which have experienced the crisis in more acute ways. It might be logical to assume that the negative economic climate would lead to a reduction of migration inflows towards developed economies as well as a growth in return migration flows. The assumption is that some immigrants will be motivated to return to their home countries while less immigrants will be inclined to move given the negative prospects as regards employment and wages.
However, the situation is more complex and more fluid than that: first because the crisis affects in different ways different categories of immigrants and their families, and second because job prospects and wages are probably worsening in source countries too keeping thus the comparative profit from migration similar to the pre-crisis period. It may seem logical to assume (as also Papademetriou and his team argue, see http://www.migrationpolicy.org/transatlantic/pubs.php) that long term settled migrants and their families will be affected by the crisis in ways similar to those of natives. They are not subject to losing their papers if they lose their jobs and they are unlikely to move because of the crisis.
Similarly immigrants who have been waiting for years to obtain their papers to migrate regularly to large immigration countries such as the USA or Canada, are unlikely to change their plans because of the economic crisis because they have been waiting for too long to waste the opportunity. Migrants who are undocumented though and mid-term migrants, notably those who have been staying in the destination country 5 years or less and/or whose legal status is insecure or who have left their families behind are more likely to consider going back.
However, the decision to return is further affected by two factors: on one hand, the pressure from their families back home to keep sending remittances and, on the other hand, the job prospects in the source country upon return. If the former are high and the latter are low, these immigrants are more likely to stay in the destination countries and accept worse working conditions, lower wages, even periods of unemployment. Those who may lose their papers because of lack of employment may also consider staying and going underground, working in the informal market if there are few prospects of economic survival when they go back and especially if propsects of then returning to the destination country are bleak because of migration restrictions in developed economies.
The above are some of the concerns and questions that have made us start the GFMD-Civil Society Days online dialogue with the following question:
The current financial and economic crisis is thought to affect in important and unexpected ways migrant labour by lowering demand in all sectors and suppressing wages. The question arises whether migrants are affected by the crisis in a different way than native workers? And if yes, which type of migrants (long term, or recent migrants, lesser skilled or high skilled, those migrating alone or those accompanied by their families) are affected more significantly? What types of policies need to be put in place to mitigate these effects? Would welfare/unemployment policies me most useful or policies encouraging return? What could be other options?
To contribute your thoughts and comments on this theme and participate in the online dialogue, please register with the CSD/GFMD Athens 2009 website. To register, click here.
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